Optimal Management of Public Perceptions During A Flu Outbreak: A Game-Theoretic Perspective

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Vaccine uptake remains below herd immunity levels globally, hindering influenza control.
• Public perception and knowledge significantly impact vaccination decisions and campaign effectiveness.
• Current strategies face challenges in achieving optimal flu vaccination coverage, especially in vulnerable populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model individual vaccination decisions within a public health campaign context.
• To determine optimal strategies for public health interventions to maximize vaccine uptake and minimize costs.
• To analyze the influence of public perception and risk assessment on vaccination dynamics.

Main Methods:

• A two-strategy pairwise contest game model was developed to represent individual decision-making.
• Pontryagin's maximum principle was applied to identify optimal public health strategies.
• Numerical simulations were used to explore cost minimization and vaccination dynamics under varying public perceptions.

Main Results:

• The cost-effectiveness of public health initiatives varies significantly based on public attitudes towards vaccines.
• Evolving individual risk perception, influenced by vaccine uptake or disease severity, can create a positive feedback loop, increasing vaccination rates.
• Optimal cost reduction is achieved by concentrating public health efforts at the beginning and end of an outbreak, rather than during its peak.

Conclusions:

• Public health strategies must account for diverse public perceptions and attitudes to be effective.
• Disseminating information on disease severity and vaccination risks can accelerate vaccine uptake and mitigate influenza spread.
• Targeted, timely public health interventions are crucial for efficient and effective influenza control.