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Piecewise-constant optimal control strategies for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Irish population
Lennon Ó Náraigh1, Áine Byrne1
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.
Abstract:
We introduce a deterministic SEIR model and fit it to epidemiological data for the COVID-19 outbreak in Ireland. We couple the model to economic considerations - we formulate an optimal control problem in which the cost to the economy of the various non-pharmaceutical interventions is minimized, subject to hospital admissions never exceeding a threshold value corresponding to health-service capacity. Within the framework of the model, the optimal strategy of disease control is revealed to be one of disease suppression, rather than disease mitigation.
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