[Current status and projection of non-communicable diseases in 126 countries participating in the Belt and Road...

Objective: To compare the indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and predict the achieving time of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 125 countries participating in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative and China. Methods: Using the open access data of Global Burden of Disease study, we first got the premature mortality rates of four main chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and suicide mortality rate in the 126 countries from1990 to 2017. We transformed the value of each indicator into a scale of 0-100 in percentile for each country and applied geometric mean to calculate total NCD score for comparison among 126 countries. We then examined the association of NCD scores with socio-demographic index (SDI) values. Finally, we used annualized rates of change during 1990-2015 to predict achieving time of the UN goal by 2030 for each indicator of chronic diseases premature mortality rate and suicide mortality rates in each B&R country. Results: The integral median of total NCD score in the 126 countries in 2017 was 82.7. The score of China was 87.6, ranking 33(rd). The top three countries were Kuwait (98.1), Peru (97.5) and Italy (96.0). The last three countries were Papua New Guinea (28.9), Vanuatu (54.7) and Ukraine (58.0). The total NCD score showed positive correlation with SDI values (r=0.33) mainly due to chronic disease indicator (r=0.45). Fifteen countries will achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality in or before 2030, but China will achieve it in 2038. Fifteen countries are expected to achieve the goal of suicide mortality, and China will acheive the goal ahead of schedule in 2024. Conclusions: The NCD rates varied widely among the countries along B&R. It is a challenge to achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality rate by 2030 for China. In order to achieve the SDG goals by 2030, we should strengthen multilateral cooperation and complement each other's advantages, and reduce NCD mortality of people and improve people's health in countries along B&R.