Assessing the interaction of land cover/land use dynamics, climate extremes and food systems in Uganda

Rainfed agriculture is Uganda's mainstay across the different regions of its territory. Farmland area has been reported to increase despite agriculture's vulnerability to climate variations. This great interplay among land-use dynamics, climate extremes, and food systems is, however, understudied. The current research, therefore, explores this interaction at both national and regional scales for the period between 2001 and 2017. Following an approach that employs remote sensing datasets on Net Primary Productivity (NPP), land cover types, drought indices, and climate variables, i.e. precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration, impacts of climate extremes and land cover changes on food production have been analysed. Similarly, the performance of ten major crops in Uganda over the last 6 decades has been detected using the Regime Shift technique. Key findings, thereof, indicate that NPP in farmlands is sensitive to climate variability, and this sensitivity varies spatially among the regions. Forests and permanent wetlands have been massively changed into farmlands, hence, moving a step forward into offsetting food insecurity but a step backward in preserving ecosystem services, espcially mitigating climate change. Furthermore, the noticeable increase in the total production of the major crops in Uganda seems to be derived mainly by the increase in area harvested affirming the step towards food security. However, the influences, thereof, may aggravate climate change impacts especially through reversing carbon sinks into carbon sources. This reversal could impact the crop yields further. Contrastingly, results from some crops illustrate the potential to increase crop production without necessarily expanding the cropland area. Therefore, Uganda may, instead, consider exploiting the maximum yield potential of crops through, for instance, augmenting rainfed agriculture with irrigation and enforcing effective policies rather than expanding farmland area. These findings collectively contribute further to our understanding of the importance of policies that ensure food security but at the same time preserve a healthy environment.