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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Multiscale consensus habitat modeling for landscape level conservation prioritization.

Erin E Poor1, Brian K Scheick2, Jennifer M Mullinax3

  • 1Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, 1433 Animal Science Building, 8127 Regents Dr., College Park, MD, 20742, USA.

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Summary

Habitat fragmentation threatens carnivore populations. This study used species distribution models to map black bear habitat in Florida, identifying risks from sea level rise and development to guide conservation efforts.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Wildlife Management

Background:

  • Wide-ranging carnivore populations face global threats from human-caused habitat fragmentation.
  • Habitat quantification is a critical first step in conservation planning for fragmented populations.
  • Species distribution models (SDMs) offer robust methods for habitat identification when appropriate scales and data are used.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify critical black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus) habitat in Florida at both local and state scales.
  • To assess potential future habitat fragmentation due to sea level rise and development.
  • To inform conservation prioritization for this fragmented carnivore population.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized presence-only location data and environmental variables to construct a consensus SDM.
  • Employed Maxent and Mahalanobis distance algorithms for habitat modeling.
  • Compared identified habitat areas with projections for sea level rise, human development, and existing protected areas.

Main Results:

  • Local-scale models demonstrated superior performance compared to state-scale models.
  • Identified 23,798 km² of habitat at the local scale and 45,703 km² at the state scale.
  • Significant portions of identified habitat face threats: 10-14% from inundation, 7-16% from development, and 15-54% is currently unprotected.

Conclusions:

  • Florida black bear habitat is susceptible to fragmentation, with local-scale models providing more accurate assessments.
  • Sea level rise and development pose substantial risks to current and future black bear habitat.
  • Urgent need for focused conservation strategies and improved connectivity between subpopulations to ensure long-term population stability.