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Learning from SARS: Return and volatility connectedness in COVID-19.

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The COVID-19 pandemic increased stock market connectedness globally. However, countries with prior SARS experience showed significantly lower stock return and volatility connectedness during the COVID-19 crisis.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented global economic disruption.
  • Understanding financial market interconnectedness is crucial during health crises.
  • Previous experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) may influence national responses to pandemics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of COVID-19 on stock return and volatility connectedness across G20 countries.
  • To determine if prior experience with SARS in 2003 alters stock market connectedness during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of stock market data from G20 countries.
  • Measurement of stock return and volatility connectedness.
  • Comparison of connectedness metrics between countries with and without SARS death experience.
  • Robustness checks using various COVID-19 severity measures and controlling for economic development.

Main Results:

  • Both stock return and volatility connectedness significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The increase in connectedness was more pronounced as the pandemic's severity escalated.
  • Countries with prior SARS death experience exhibited substantially lower stock market connectedness during COVID-19.
  • Findings remained robust across different pandemic severity indicators and economic development levels.

Conclusions:

  • COVID-19 heightened global stock market interconnectedness, reflecting heightened uncertainty and risk transmission.
  • Prior experience with SARS mitigated the impact of COVID-19 on stock market connectedness, suggesting that past exposure to severe infectious diseases can foster more resilient financial systems.
  • Policy implications include the importance of pandemic preparedness for financial market stability.