A modified Delphi method to elicit and compare perceptions of industry trends

Area of Science:

• Business Strategy
• Innovation Management
• Organizational Cognition

Background:

• Incumbent firms often struggle with radical business model innovation due to cognitive barriers, particularly a dominant core business logic.
• These dominant logics can create organizational tensions when new business models emerge.
• Differences in how strategic issues are identified and interpreted contribute to these cognitive barriers.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose and demonstrate a method for eliciting and examining perceptual differences in industry trends among key stakeholder groups.
• To explain how these perceptual differences contribute to cognitive barriers hindering radical business model innovation in incumbent firms.

Main Methods:

• A 7-step Delphi-based method was developed to systematically gather and analyze perceptions.
• The method was applied to compare the views of internal innovators, core business employees, and external experts.
• A case study of a leading Nordic insurance firm was used for demonstration and validation.

Main Results:

• The study identified significant differences in the perception of industry trends between innovators, core business employees, and external experts.
• These perceptual discrepancies highlight the cognitive barriers faced by incumbent firms.
• The proposed Delphi method effectively elicited and examined these differing perceptions.

Conclusions:

• Differences in strategic issue identification and interpretation are key explanations for cognitive barriers in radical business model innovation.
• The demonstrated Delphi-based method provides a replicable framework for understanding and addressing these perceptual gaps.
• Addressing these cognitive barriers is crucial for incumbent firms seeking to successfully implement radical business model innovations.