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Sequencing Systemic Therapy Pathways for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cost Effectiveness Analysis
Christopher Sherrow1, Kristopher Attwood2, Kehua Zhou3
1Department of Pharmacy, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, New York, USA.
The most cost-effective treatment for advanced liver cancer (HCC) involves first-line tyrosine kinase inhibitors followed by second-line immunotherapy. While all evaluated treatment pathways exceeded typical willingness-to-pay thresholds, this sequence offers the best value.
Area of Science:
- Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) Treatment
- Health Economics and Outcomes Research
- Oncology Drug Efficacy and Cost
Background:
- Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer death globally with limited treatment options.
- Sorafenib was historically the sole systemic therapy for advanced HCC; however, recent FDA approvals have introduced six new agents.
- Current clinical guidelines lack clear direction on optimal sequencing for these novel HCC therapies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of various first- and second-line treatment sequences for advanced HCC.
- To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of newly approved systemic therapies for HCC.
- To provide clinical guidance on the most cost-effective treatment pathways for HCC.
Main Methods:
- Markov models were employed to assess eight distinct first- and second-line treatment sequences for HCC.
- Cost-effectiveness ratios (CER) and incremental CER (ICER) were calculated against willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.
- Efficacy, toxicity, and wholesale acquisition costs (WAC) of agents (excluding ramucirumab) were analyzed using data from landmark trials and June 2019 pricing; Monte-Carlo simulations modeled 1,000,000 patients.
Main Results:
- The sorafenib-only pathway exhibited the lowest cost-effectiveness ratio (CER), followed by pembrolizumab at $227,741.03 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).
- Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) analysis indicated that second-line pembrolizumab-based pathways become cost-effective at a higher WTP threshold of $300,000/QALY.
- Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these findings, showing no substantial changes to the results.
Conclusions:
- The optimal cost-effective strategy identified was first-line tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy followed by second-line immunotherapy.
- All evaluated HCC treatment pathways surpassed the commonly accepted WTP threshold of $100,000-$150,000/QALY.
- Further research is recommended to refine these findings and inform real-world clinical practice for advanced HCC management.
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