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Autocratisation and universal health coverage: synthetic control study.
Simon Wigley1, Joseph L Dieleman2, Tara Templin3
1Department of Philosophy, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey wigley@bilkent.edu.tr.
Autocratisation hinders population health and universal health coverage (UHC) progress. Countries with declining democracy showed worse outcomes in life expectancy, UHC coverage, and health spending compared to projections.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Political Science
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Autocratisation, characterized by decreased democratic traits, is a growing global trend.
- Understanding its impact on population health and universal health coverage (UHC) is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the relationship between autocratisation and population health outcomes.
- To evaluate the effect of autocratisation on progress toward universal health coverage (UHC).
Main Methods:
- Synthetic control analysis applied to a global sample of countries (1989-2019).
- Comparison of 17 autocratising countries with 119 non-autocratising control countries.
- Outcome measures included HIV-free life expectancy, UHC effective coverage index, and out-of-pocket health spending.
Main Results:
- Autocratising countries showed poorer outcomes in all measured health indicators 10 years post-autocratisation.
- Estimated losses included a 1.3% reduction in life expectancy and a 8.3% deficit in UHC coverage.
- Out-of-pocket health spending increased by 5.6% more than estimated in autocratising nations.
Conclusions:
- Democratic erosion negatively impacts population health gains and UHC progress.
- Global health institutions must adapt strategies for countries with diminishing democratic accountability.
- Policy recommendations need to address the reduced incentive for quality healthcare in autocratising states.
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