COVID-19 and Global Poverty: Are LDCs Being Left Behind?

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Development Studies
• Global Health

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented global economic disruption.
• A decade of progress in poverty reduction is at risk.
• The pandemic's impact on poverty requires urgent assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a preliminary assessment of COVID-19's impact on global poverty.
• To analyze the effect of IMF growth forecasts on poverty levels.
• To evaluate the threat to the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of preliminary data and International Monetary Fund (IMF) growth forecasts.
• Modeling baseline and severe recession scenarios for poverty increase.
• Assessment of the geographic concentration of poverty.

Main Results:

• An increase of 68 million people living below US$1.90 per day is projected for 2020.
• This number could rise to nearly 100 million in a severe recession scenario.
• Poverty is expected to become more concentrated in Least Developed Countries.

Conclusions:

• The pandemic poses a critical threat to global poverty reduction efforts and the 2030 Agenda.
• Effective international support is crucial to mitigate the adverse effects.
• Least Developed Countries are disproportionately affected, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.