Long-term influence of technical, physical performance indicators and situational variables on match outcome in male professional Chinese soccer

This study aimed to determine whether the role of technical, physical performance indicators and situational variables in determining match outcome has varied from a long-term analysis (seasons 2012 to 2017) of the Chinese Soccer Super League (CSL). The sample included 1,429 matches where 17 technical performance-related indicators, 11 physical performance-related indicators and two situational variables (match location and quality of opposition) were analysed. Three binary logistic regression models (inclusion of different variables) were used to measure the level of association between factors and match outcome over the six seasons studied. Results of models 1 and 2 revealed that shots on target, possession, total distance in ball possession, total distance out of ball possession, and match location exerted a decreased influence on winning the matches from 2012 to 2014 seasons. However, these indicators play a more important role in winning matches from 2014 to 2017 seasons. Additionally, the quality of opposition has a continuously increased negative effect on the match outcome. In model 3, more variables, such as high-speed distance, high-speed out of ball possession, had a meaningful influence on winning the match. These results provide valuable information about performance indicators and situational variables on winning the matches from a long-term approach.