Evolving Trends in Adult Heart Transplant With the 2018 Heart Allocation Policy Change

The US heart allocation policy was changed on October 18, 2018. The association of this change with recipient and donor selection and outcomes remains to be elucidated.

To evaluate changes in patient characteristics, wait list outcomes, and posttransplant outcomes after the recent allocation policy change in heart transplant.

In this cohort study, all 15 631 adults undergoing heart transplants, excluding multiorgan transplants, in the US as identified by the United Network for Organ Sharing multicenter, national registry were reviewed. Patients were stratified according to prepolicy change (October 1, 2015, to October 1, 2018) and postpolicy change (October 18, 2018 or after). Follow-up data were available through March 31, 2020.

Heart transplants after the policy change.

Competing risk regression for wait list outcomes was performed. Posttransplant survival was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method, and risk adjustment was performed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

In this cohort study, of the 15 631 patients undergoing transplant, 10 671 (mean [SD] age, 53.1 [12.7] years; 7823 [73.3%] male) were wait listed before and 4960 (mean [SD] age, 52.7 [13.0] years; 3610 [72.8%] male) were wait listed after the policy change. Competing risk regression demonstrated reduced likelihood of mortality or deterioration (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.60; 95% CI, 0.52-0.69; P < .001), increased likelihood of transplant (SHR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.32-1.45; P < .001), and reduced likelihood of recovery (SHR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40-0.73; P < .001) for wait listed patients after the policy change. A total of 6078 patients underwent transplant before and 2801 after the policy change. Notable changes after the policy change included higher frequency of bridging with temporary mechanical circulatory support and lower frequency of bridging with durable left ventricular assist devices. Posttransplant survival was reduced after the policy change (1-year: 92.1% vs 87.5%; log-rank P < .001), a finding that persisted after risk adjustment (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.07-1.55; P = .008).

Substantial changes have occurred in adult heart transplant in the US after the policy change in October 2018. Wait list outcomes have improved, although posttransplant survival has decreased. These data confirm findings from earlier preliminary analyses and demonstrate that these trends have persisted to 1-year follow-up, underscoring the importance of continued reevaluation of the new heart allocation policy.