Predicting failure in polytetrafluoroethylene vascular access grafts for hemodialysis: a pilot study

In order to determine if serial, noninvasive evaluation of polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) vascular access grafts could identify a subgroup of patients at risk for thrombosis, the authors studied flow characteristics, using duplex ultrasonic scanning, in 18 hemodialysis patients with forearm loop grafts. On average, five examinations were performed per patient over the 10-month study period. Seven episodes of thrombosis occurred in six patients. The mean Doppler flow in grafts that subsequently thrombosed was significantly lower than in those that did not (544 +/- 218 ml/min versus 843 +/- 391 ml/min, p less than 0.001). The interval from last examination to thrombosis ranged from 13 to 58 days. At a defined cut-off flow of 450 ml/min, this test yielded a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 75% for episodes of thrombosis occurring within 2 to 6 weeks. The authors conclude that episodes of thrombosis in PTFE arm loop grafts are usually preceded by significantly lower Doppler-measured flow than grafts that do not thrombose and that it may be possible, by this means, to identify grafts at risk.