Search research articles

ABOUT JoVE

Overview Leadership Blog JoVE Help Center

AUTHORS

Publishing Process Editorial Board Scope & Policies Peer Review FAQ Submit

LIBRARIANS

Testimonials Subscriptions Access Resources Library Advisory Board FAQ

RESEARCH

JoVE Journal Methods Collections JoVE Encyclopedia of Experiments Archive

EDUCATION

JoVE Core JoVE Business JoVE Science Education JoVE Lab Manual Faculty Resource Center Faculty Site

Terms & Conditions of Use

Related Concept Videos

Reason and Intuition

Reason and Intuition

The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...

Hindsight Biases

Hindsight Biases

Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now?

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
Confidence intervals have confidence coefficients that are crucial for their interpretation. The most common confidence coefficients are 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99, which can be written as percentages–90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively.
Suppose a person calculates a confidence interval with a confidence coefficient of 0.95. In that case, they can...

Inductive Reasoning

Inductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning is a form of logical thinking that uses related observations to arrive at a general conclusion. It is uncertain and operates in degrees to which the conclusions are credible. As such, inductive arguments can be weak or strong, rather than valid or invalid, and conclusions can be used to formulate testable, falsifiable hypotheses.
Inductive reasoning is common in descriptive science. A life scientist makes observations and records them. This data can be qualitative or...

Confirmation Biases

Confirmation Biases

The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?

The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

In order to make good decisions, we use our knowledge and our reasoning. Often, this knowledge and reasoning is sound and solid. However, sometimes, we are swayed by biases or by others manipulating a situation. For example, let’s say you and three friends wanted to rent a house and had a combined target budget of $1,600. The realtor shows you only very run-down houses for $1,600 and then shows you a very nice house for $2,000. Might you ask each person to pay more in rent to get the...

You might also read

Related Articles

Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

Sort by

Same author

Non-Guideline-Compliant Prescriptions of Benzodiazepines and Z Drugs: Effects of Social Norm Feedback. A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Deutsches Arzteblatt international·2026

Same author

Chloral Hydrate in the Treatment of Severe Insomnia When Other Treatments Have Failed: Results From a Real-World Evidence Study (RESTORE).

Nature and science of sleep·2026

Same author

Communicating Time-to-Event Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials: A Randomized Experiment among General Practitioners.

Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·2026

Same author

Translating predictive models into clinical practice: fast-and-frugal trees for postoperative delirium using routine data.

Scientific reports·2026

Same author

Economic evaluation of a digital symptom checker for endometriosis using a Markov decision process model.

NPJ digital medicine·2026

Same author

Short report: association between self-reported COVID-19 experience and contemptuous beliefs about pandemic management among German citizens and healthcare professionals.

Journal of public health (Oxford, England)·2025

Search research articles

Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 3, 2025

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Published on: November 2, 2012

Do children have Bayesian intuitions?

Gerd Gigerenzer¹, Jan Multmeier¹, Andrea Föhring¹

¹Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General

|October 29, 2020

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Children can develop Bayesian intuitions using visual aids like icon arrays, even with dyscalculia. This suggests greater innate numerical abilities in children than previously understood, impacting statistical thinking education.

More Related Videos

A Tactile Automated Passive-Finger Stimulator TAPS

A Tactile Automated Passive-Finger Stimulator TAPS

Published on: June 3, 2009

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling

Published on: April 6, 2018

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Dec 3, 2025

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Creating Objects and Object Categories for Studying Perception and Perceptual Learning

Published on: November 2, 2012

A Tactile Automated Passive-Finger Stimulator TAPS

A Tactile Automated Passive-Finger Stimulator TAPS

Published on: June 3, 2009

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling

The Modified Temptation Resistance Task: A Paradigm to Elicit Children's Strategic Lie-telling

Published on: April 6, 2018

Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Developmental Psychology
Bayesian Cognition

Background:

Bayesian problem-solving is challenging for adults and children.
Existing research often overlooks children's innate numerical capacities.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate if children possess "Bayesian intuitions" without formal probability training.
To explore the role of numerical competencies and external representations in developing Bayesian reasoning.
To examine Bayesian problem-solving abilities in children with dyscalculia.

Main Methods:

An ecological framework was used, focusing on the match between children's numerical skills and visual numerosity representations.
Icon arrays were employed as external aids to elicit Bayesian intuitions.
Experiments were conducted with children from second to seventh grade, including those with dyscalculia.

Main Results:

Icon arrays enabled second-graders to solve 22-32% of Bayesian problems; fourth-graders achieved 50-60%.
Children with dyscalculia showed surprising proficiency, solving 50% of problems with icon arrays.
Seventh-graders solved approximately two-thirds of problems using natural frequencies alone.

Conclusions:

Bayesian intuitions can emerge from basic counting skills and visual aids, not requiring formal probability knowledge.
The findings support a revision in teaching statistical thinking, emphasizing intuitive numerical abilities.
Children possess more advanced numerical and statistical reasoning capabilities than commonly assumed.