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Fuzzy Approach Analyzing SEIR-SEI Dengue Dynamics.

G Bhuju1, G R Phaijoo2, D B Gurung2

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Bhaktapur Multiple Campus, Bhaktapur, Nepal.

Biomed Research International
|October 30, 2020
PubMed
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This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a fuzzy SEIR-SEI model to better represent dengue fever transmission dynamics, accounting for variations in mosquito bites and recovery rates. The fuzzy basic reproduction number was calculated to analyze disease spread with varying dengue virus loads.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

  • Dengue fever is a significant mosquito-borne illness impacting over 100 tropical nations.
  • Traditional dengue models often assume homogeneous transmission, which doesn't reflect real-world heterogeneity in mosquito-human interactions.
  • Incorporating fuzzy theory can mathematically address the uncertainty and heterogeneity inherent in disease transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and analyze a fuzzy SEIR-SEI compartmental model for dengue transmission dynamics.
  • To investigate the impact of heterogeneous mosquito biting rates on disease spread.
  • To mathematically describe transmission uncertainty using fuzzy numbers for key parameters.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a fuzzy SEIR-SEI compartmental model.
  • Fuzzy numbers were used to represent transmission and recovery rates.
  • Calculation of the fuzzy basic reproduction number using Sugeno integral for varying virus loads.
  • Simulations to graphically illustrate model dynamics.

Main Results:

  • The fuzzy SEIR-SEI model provides a more realistic representation of dengue transmission dynamics.
  • Analysis revealed how variations in transmission and recovery rates, modeled as fuzzy numbers, affect disease spread.
  • The fuzzy basic reproduction number was effectively calculated, offering insights into disease persistence under different viral loads.

Conclusions:

  • Fuzzy theory offers a robust framework for modeling the complexities of dengue transmission.
  • The study highlights the importance of considering heterogeneity in mosquito-vector interactions for accurate disease dynamics.
  • The developed fuzzy model and fuzzy reproduction number provide valuable tools for understanding and managing dengue fever.