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Updated: Dec 3, 2025

Lumped-Parameter and Finite Element Modeling of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction
Published on: February 13, 2021
Epidemiologic Characterization of Heart Failure with Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction Populations Identified
Rishi J Desai1, Mufaddal Mahesri1, Kristyn Chin1
1Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital & Harvard Medical School, Boston, Mass.
Insights
A new claims-based model accurately predicts heart failure subtypes, distinguishing between reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in older adults. This model aids in understanding patient characteristics and outcomes for heart failure management.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Health Informatics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Administrative claims lack ejection fraction data for heart failure patients.
- A validated claims-based model was developed to predict ejection fraction subtype.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply a claims-based model to distinguish between heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF).
- To analyze patient characteristics and outcomes based on the predicted ejection fraction subtype.
Main Methods:
- Identified 3,134,414 US Medicare heart failure patients aged 65+.
- Applied a claims-based model to classify patients into HFrEF or HFpEF.
- Followed patients for worsening heart failure events or all-cause mortality.
Main Results:
- 6.4% of patients were classified as HFrEF.
- HFrEF patients were more likely male and younger, with higher rates of myocardial infarction.
- HFpEF patients had higher rates of hypertension; one-year composite endpoint incidence was 42.6% for HFrEF and 36.9% for HFpEF.
Conclusions:
- The claims-based model successfully replicated known differences in patient characteristics between HFrEF and HFpEF.
- The model aids in understanding outcomes, including higher cardiovascular mortality in HFrEF and noncardiovascular mortality in HFpEF.
Background:
Administrative claims do not contain ejection fraction information for heart failure patients. We recently developed and validated a claims-based model to predict ejection fraction subtype.
Methods:
Heart failure patients aged 65 years or above from US Medicare fee-for-service claims were identified using diagnoses recorded after a 6-month baseline period of continuous enrollment, which was used to identify predictors and to apply the claims-based model to distinguish heart failure with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF). Patients were followed for the composite outcome of time to first worsening heart failure event (heart failure hospitalization or outpatient intravenous diuretic treatment) or all-cause mortality.
Results:
A total of 3,134,414 heart failure patients with an average age of 79 years were identified, of which 200,950 (6.4%) were classified as HFrEF. Among those classified as HFrEF, men comprised a larger proportion (68% vs 41%) and the average age was lower (76 vs 79 years) compared with HFpEF. History of myocardial infarction was more common in HFrEF (32% vs 13%), while hypertension was more common in HFpEF (71% vs 77%). One-year cumulative incidence of the composite endpoint was 42.6% for HFrEF and 36.9% for HFpEF. One-year all-cause mortality incidence was similar between the groups (27.4% for HFrEF and 26.4% for HFpEF), however, cardiovascular mortality was higher for HFrEF (15.6% vs 11.3%), whereas noncardiovascular mortality was higher for HFpEF (11.8% vs 15.1%).
Conclusion:
We replicated well-documented differences in key patient characteristics and cause-specific outcomes between HFrEF and HFpEF in populations identified based on the application of a claims-based model.
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