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Projecting marine developmental diversity and connectivity in future oceans
Dustin J Marshall1, Mariana Alvarez-Noriega1
1Centre for Geometric Biology, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Summary
Global warming will shift marine species distributions, favoring species with planktonic larvae. Dispersal durations will shorten, especially in polar regions, altering marine ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Marine biology
- Global change ecology
- Biogeography
Background:
- Global change impacts species distribution and ecosystem dynamics.
- Marine dispersal is temperature-dependent and influences species' resilience and spread.
- Few studies project changes in marine dispersal under future climate conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project how marine dispersal strategies will change under future thermal regimes.
- To assess shifts in the distribution of different marine developmental modes.
- To estimate changes in marine developmental durations due to warming.
Main Methods:
- Utilized developmental mode (larval vs. non-larval) and developmental duration as proxies for dispersal.
- Analyzed current species distributions to predict future shifts in developmental modes.
- Modeled temperature-dependence of development to project future durations.
Main Results:
- Species with feeding planktonic larvae are predicted to increase in prevalence and expand poleward.
- Species with non-planktonic development are expected to decline in relative abundance.
- Marine developmental durations are projected to decrease, with over 90% decline in high latitudes.
Conclusions:
- Significant alterations in marine dispersal are anticipated due to global warming.
- Species in polar seas will experience the most substantial changes in dispersal potential.
- These shifts will fundamentally impact marine ecological and evolutionary dynamics.
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