Identifying Regions of Greatest Need for Ending the HIV Epidemic: A Plan for America

In the 2019 State of the Union Address, President Trump announced a plan for "Ending the HIV Epidemic" in the United States, with a goal to reduce new HIV infections by 90% by 2030. Phase I of the plan set an intermediate goal of a 75% reduction within 5 years, focusing on select states and counties.

We assessed the feasibility of the first phase of the plan by estimating the fraction of HIV diagnoses that occur within the targeted region, using a statistical model to predict new HIV cases in each county. We suggested new areas that should be added to the current plan, prioritizing by both a "Density Metric" of new HIV cases and a "Gap Metric" quantifying shortcomings in antiretroviral therapy and pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake.

We found the current plan targets less than 60% of new diagnoses. The plan should be expanded to Puerto Rico, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, and Maryland as well as parts of New York, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia, areas which were prioritized by both metrics.

Many of the highest priority areas, both by density of HIV cases and by lack of viral suppression and pre-exposure prophylaxis use, were not covered by the original plan, particularly in the South. The current plan to end the HIV epidemic must be expanded to these areas to feasibly allow for a 75% reduction in new HIV cases within 5 years.