Tracking Trends in the Opioid Epidemic in North Carolina : Early Results from the Opioid Action Plan Metrics

BACKGROUND Deaths from unintentional opioid overdose have increased markedly over the last decade in North Carolina. In 2017 the state created a North Carolina Opioid Action Plan, which laid out a multisectoral response to the crisis that included the medical community, law enforcement, emergency medical services, and treatment professionals. It also created a website providing county-level data associated with the crisis. Using this publicly available data, we examine trends and associations between opioid-related mortality and strategies to reduce opioid prescriptions, reduce fatality of overdose, and improve treatment and recovery.METHOD We examine yearly trends from 2010-2017 for statewide unintentional opioid-related death rates, prescription of opioid pills, buprenorphine prescription rates, naloxone administrations, and number of Certified Peer Support Specialists. We compare recent opioid-related death rates for 2015-2017 with an earlier period (2010-2012) at the county level, and examine the association between death rates and rates of the supply, treatment, and recovery metrics.RESULTS Trends for all metrics increased from 2010-2017, although the number of opioid pills per capita has declined since 2015. Between 2010 and 2017, 84 of the state's 100 counties experienced an increase in opioid-related mortality. County-level mortality was positively associated with opioid prescription rate (r = +0.12, P = 0.24) and with naloxone administrations (r = +0.20, P = 0.05). Prescription of buprenorphine was associated with a reduction in opioid mortality (r = -0.27, P = 0.01). The effect of Certified Peer Support Specialists was not discernable.LIMITATIONS Data are available for only eight years and aggregated at the county level. Mortality data are based on death certificates using ICD-10 codes from the North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics, which may not capture all opioid-related fatalities. Drug-related deaths may involve multiple non-opioid substances; in addition, determining the intent of the deceased individual may be difficult (suicide versus unintentional). Naloxone administration data only includes data from emergency medical services, not community-administered naloxone, because that data was only available for 2013 and later and is based only on self-reports.CONCLUSIONS The potential efficacy of buprenorphine is promising and should be further explored. All interventions should be monitored.