Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Public Health
• Population Dynamics Modeling
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are significant public health risks, acting as zoonotic disease vectors and threats to wildlife.
• India faces high FRD populations and rabies incidence, relying on Catch-Neuter-Vaccinate-Release (CNVR) without proven success.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the resources and conditions required for successful FRD population control in urban settings.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of CNVR in achieving adequate anti-rabies vaccination coverage.

Main Methods:

• An agent-based dog population dynamics model was developed to simulate various urban scenarios.
• Simulations included 'ideal' closed populations and realistic open populations with varying dog catchability.

Main Results:

• Only one 'best-case' scenario showed significant, lasting FRD reduction via CNVR.
• Achieved vaccination rates peaked at 35%, substantially below the WHO-recommended coverage for rabies control.

Conclusions:

• Successful FRD control and effective anti-rabies vaccination require substantial, sustained effort and specific conditions.
• The developed modeling tool can aid managers in assessing FRD control strategies and resource allocation.