A system dynamics model for disease management in poultry production
Karen D Galarneau1, Randall S Singer2, Robert W Wills1
1Department of Basic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762-6100, USA.
Poultry Science
|November 4, 2020
Summary
This study introduces a broiler house disease management simulator (BHDMS) using system dynamics modeling (SDM) to evaluate interventions like antimicrobial use. The simulator helps understand disease dynamics and their impact on poultry populations.
Area of Science:
- Poultry Science
- System Dynamics Modeling
- Disease Management
Background:
- Complex systems in broiler houses involve circular relationships and delays.
- Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for effective management.
- System dynamics modeling (SDM) offers a method to analyze these complexities.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a non-modeler overview of SDM through the development of a broiler house disease management simulator (BHDMS).
- To elucidate the relationships between factors influencing disease in broiler production.
- To evaluate the impact of management interventions, such as antimicrobial use, on disease dynamics.
Main Methods:
- System dynamics modeling steps: problem identification, dynamic hypothesis, causal loop diagram (CLD), stock and flow model, simulation, and validation.
- Development of a BHDMS incorporating production cycles, disease dynamics, and antimicrobial use.
- Simulation of various production parameters and disease scenarios.
Main Results:
- A CLD and stock and flow model for the BHDMS were developed.
- Simulations demonstrated the effect of antimicrobial use on susceptible, infected, recovered, and dead bird populations.
- Model validity tests confirmed its ability to represent disease dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The BHDMS effectively simulates disease population dynamics in broiler houses.
- The model facilitates the evaluation of management interventions, including antimicrobial strategies.
- SDM provides a valuable tool for understanding and managing complex poultry health systems.
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