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Change in China's SRB: A Dynamic Spatial Panel Approach.

Tingshuai Ge1, Li Mei1, Xiujun Tai2

  • 1Institute for Population and Development Studies, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|November 4, 2020
PubMed
Summary

China's sex ratio at birth (SRB) is spatially dependent. Urbanization and education reduce local and neighboring SRB, while family planning and economic growth increase it.

Keywords:
Chinasex ratio at birthspatial Durbin modelspatial dependence

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Public Health

Background:

  • China's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has been rising, with factors analyzed, but spatial dependence was overlooked.
  • Understanding spatial correlations is crucial for effective policy interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatial dependence of China's sex ratio at birth (SRB).
  • To investigate the direct and indirect effects of urbanization, family planning policies, economic growth, and education on SRB.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized China's census and sample survey data.
  • Employed a dynamic spatial Durbin model to analyze provincial-level SRB changes.

Main Results:

  • SRB and its influencing factors exhibit significant spatial correlation at the provincial level.
  • Urbanization directly reduced local SRB; strict family planning policies increased it.
  • Increased GDP and urbanization indirectly raised neighboring SRB via population mobility.
  • Educational improvements in one province reduced SRB in neighboring provinces.

Conclusions:

  • Spatial factors significantly influence China's SRB.
  • Policy implications suggest that urbanization and education have positive spillover effects, while economic growth and strict family planning may exacerbate SRB imbalances in neighboring regions.