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Temperature-driven harvest decisions amplify US winter wheat loss under climate warming
1School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
Global Change Biology
|November 4, 2020
Summary
Climate change impacts winter wheat production by reducing harvested area, not just yield. Declining prices and warming temperatures decrease the harvest area ratio (HAR), impacting food security projections.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Economics
Background:
- Most crop production studies focus on yield impacts of climate change, neglecting area and frequency responses.
- This oversight may bias future food security projections under global warming.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of climatic variability and warming on US winter wheat production from 1970 to 2017.
- To investigate the relationship between harvest area ratio (HAR), yields, and climate factors.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of US winter wheat production data (1970-2017).
- Quantification of harvest area ratio (HAR) trends and their correlation with yields, prices, and temperature exposure.
Main Results:
- US winter wheat shows declining HAR alongside rising yields, contrasting with other staple crops.
- Warming-induced HAR declines are comparable to heat-related yield losses.
- Lower wheat prices amplify the sensitivity of HAR to warming and yield variations.
Conclusions:
- Accurate climate impact assessments require accounting for harvested area responses.
- Adaptation strategies must include harvest incentives alongside crop management to address climate change impacts on wheat production.
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