A Practical Screening Tool to Predict Early Childhood Obesity Risk: Examining a Birth Cohort

Children obese at the age of 5 years are at greater risk of lifelong obesity. Because certain risks of obesity can be identified in early infancy, a tool for obesity risk prediction in early life would be clinically useful. We investigated predictors of obesity risk in a novel, prospectively collected healthy birth cohort recruited for demographic risks to develop iron deficiency at 1 year, a cohort leveraged because risk factors for iron deficiency and obesity overlap. Obesity at the age of 5 years was defined as age- and sex-specific body mass index Z-score (zBMI) >2SD. For each child, obesity risk factors were summed. Of 10 total risk factors, the following 4 key risks were identified: maternal obesity, maternal diabetes, large for gestational age, or breastfeeding <6 months. Childhood obesity was predicted by either ≥3 total number of risks (P < .033), any key risk (P < .002), or summing key risks (P < .0001). In clinical practice, summing early life risk factors may be a useful strategy for preemptive counseling.