Association of ambient air pollution with cardiovascular disease risks in people with type 2 diabetes: a Bayesian spatial survival analysis

Evidence is limited on excess risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) associated with ambient air pollution in diabetic populations. Survival analyses without considering the spatial structure and possible spatial correlations in health and environmental data may affect the precision of estimation of adverse environmental pollution effects. We assessed the association between air pollution and CVDs in type 2 diabetes through a Bayesian spatial survival approach.

Taiwan's national-level health claims and air pollution databases were utilized. Fine individual-level latitude and longitude were used to determine pollution exposure. The exponential spatial correlation between air pollution and CVDs was analyzed in our Bayesian model compared to traditional Weibull and Cox models.

There were 2072 diabetic patients included in analyses. PM_2.5 and SO₂ were significant CVD risk factors in our Bayesian model, but such associations were attenuated or underestimated in traditional models; adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% credible interval (CrI) or confidence interval (CI) of CVDs for a 1 μg/m³ increase in the monthly PM_2.5 concentration for our model, the Weibull and Cox models was 1.040 (1.004-1.073), 0.994 (0.984-1.004), and 0.994 (0.984-1.004), respectively. With a 1 ppb increase in the monthly SO₂ concentration, adjusted HR (95% CrI or CI) was 1.886 (1.642-2.113), 1.092 (1.022-1.168), and 1.091 (1.021-1.166) for these models, respectively.

Against traditional non-spatial analyses, our Bayesian spatial survival model enhances the assessment precision for environmental research with spatial survival data to reveal significant adverse cardiovascular effects of air pollution among vulnerable diabetic patients.