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Leukemia mortality in children from Latin America: trends and predictions to 2030

J Smith Torres-Roman1,2,3, Bryan Valcarcel4,5, Pedro Guerra-Canchari4,6

  • 1Universidad Científica del Sur, Lima, Peru. jstorresroman@gmail.com.

BMC Pediatrics
|November 8, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Leukemia mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is not decreasing as expected. Some countries face rising trends, with increases predicted by 2030, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Oncology
  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology

Background:

  • Leukemia remains a significant cause of cancer-related mortality in children across Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries.
  • Unlike high-income nations, many LAC countries have not demonstrated substantial reductions in leukemia mortality rates.
  • Updated epidemiological trends in pediatric leukemia mortality are largely unknown for the LAC region.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze leukemia mortality trends in children aged 0-14 years across 15 LAC countries from 2000 to 2017.
  • To predict future leukemia mortality rates up to the year 2030 within these countries.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized World Health Organization Mortality Database for cancer mortality data.
  • Analyzed mortality rates standardized to the world standard SEGI population.
  • Employed Joinpoint regression analysis for trend evaluation and Nordpred for future mortality predictions.

Main Results:

  • Highest mortality rates (2013-2017) observed in Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Mexico, and Peru.
  • Upward mortality trends identified in Nicaragua and Peru; significant declines noted in Puerto Rico.
  • Leukemia mortality is projected to rise by 2030 in Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay.

Conclusions:

  • Leukemia mortality is predicted to increase in several LAC nations by 2030.
  • Addressing socioeconomic inequalities and ensuring universal healthcare are crucial for intervention strategies.
  • Targeted public health interventions are necessary to mitigate rising leukemia mortality in the region.
Abstract

Keywords:
ChildLatin AmericaLeukemiaMortality rateTrends, epidemiology

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