Factors to predict shock-wave lithotripsy results in pediatric patients and external validation of a nomogram

To evaluate the accuracy of the Dogan nomogram in predicting stone-free (SF) rate after a single shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) session and evaluate factors that predict SWL results in children.

The study included 68 patients under 18 years of age who had been treated with SWL for radiopaque upper urinary tract stones in our tertiary centre from January 2010 to December 2016. The median age is 50 (6-207) months and median follow-up period is 9 (4-50) months. Patients with known cystine stone disease, abnormal renal anatomy, urinary diversion and multiple stones located in different calyces were excluded like in the original nomogram study. SF status was evaluated by performing plain abdominal radiography and urinary ultrasonography 2 weeks after each SWL session. Patients who were completely free of stones were considered to be SF. Multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the variables affecting SF status. The bootstrap method with 1,000 replicates was used for the external validity of a nomogram developed by Dogan.

SF rates for each SWL session were determined as 54.4% (37/68) for the first session, 33.3% (7/21) for the second session and 55.6% (5/9) for the third session. Overall, the SF rate was 72.1% (49/68). Multiple logistic regression analysis showed positive and significant correlations of age and stone size with risk of SWL failure. The external calibration plot showed a nearly good validation with Dogan nomogram to predict SWL failure in first session.

Our study demonstrates that the Dogan nomogram can be used to predict the SF status after one session of SWL in pediatric patients.