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Tracking inflation on a daily basis.

Santiago E Alvarez1, Sarah M Lein1,2,3

  • 1University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

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|November 10, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study shows that daily tracking of inflation using online price and debit card data for Switzerland offers real-time insights. This method quickly captures economic shocks, unlike official statistics which have a reporting lag.

Keywords:
Daily price indexDebit card expendituresReal-time informationScraped online price data

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Official inflation statistics are often delayed due to data collection and processing.
  • Real-time economic data can provide more timely insights into market dynamics.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for faster economic indicators.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the feasibility of daily inflation tracking using online data.
  • To compare the timeliness of real-time data with official inflation statistics.
  • To evaluate the utility of daily inflation data for policymakers.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized online price data and real-time debit card transaction data for Switzerland.
  • Developed a daily price index based on the collected online data.
  • Compared the daily index fluctuations with official inflation statistics, particularly around the COVID-19 lockdown period.

Main Results:

  • The daily price index closely tracked the official index during normal periods.
  • A significant drop in the daily index was observed immediately following the COVID-19 lockdown.
  • Official statistics reflected this economic downturn with a considerable lag.

Conclusions:

  • Daily tracking of inflation using online and transaction data is a viable and timely approach.
  • Real-time data provides immediate insights into economic shocks, outperforming official statistics in speed.
  • This methodology can inform policymakers about demand and supply shocks for effective policy decisions.