Recent Trends in U.S. Childbearing Intentions

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• The U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen significantly since the Great Recession, reaching a low of 1.73 in 2018.
• This decline raises questions about whether it reflects fewer births per cohort or a temporary postponement of childbearing (tempo distortion).

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the trends in intended fertility using data on current parity and future birth expectations.
• To determine the extent to which declining TFR is attributable to tempo distortion versus a genuine decrease in intended family size.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of data from the 2006-2017 National Survey of Family Growth.
• Examination of changes in total intended parity and the proportion of individuals intending to remain childless.
• Decomposition analysis to differentiate between compositional changes and changes within subgroups.

Main Results:

• Total intended parity decreased from 2.26 (2006-2010) to 2.16 (2013-2017).
• A slight increase in the proportion of individuals intending to remain childless was observed.
• The decline in intended parity was driven by changes within demographic subgroups, not population composition shifts, with notable decreases among younger individuals and Hispanic populations.

Conclusions:

• Tempo distortion contributes to the declining TFR, but it does not fully explain the trend.
• U.S. individuals are intending to have fewer children than previous cohorts, suggesting a potential decline in completed cohort parity.
• Despite the decline, average intended parity remains above two children, indicating a modest but significant shift in fertility intentions.