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Risk score for predicting abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting
Dmitry Vladimirovich Belov1, Dmitry Victorovich Garbuzenko2, Ksenia Alekseevna Abramovskikh3
1Department of Hospital Surgery, Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery of the Ministry of Health of Russia (the city of Chelyabinsk), Chelyabinsk 454003, Russia.
Insights
A new risk score helps predict early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). This tool aids in stratifying patients, improving outcomes for high-risk individuals undergoing CABG surgery.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Surgery
- Surgical Complications
- Risk Stratification
Background:
- Early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) are infrequent but carry a high mortality rate.
- Identifying patients at risk is crucial for proactive management and improved surgical outcomes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive risk score for early abdominal complications following CABG with CPB.
- To identify key risk factors associated with the development of these complications.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 6586 patients undergoing CABG with CPB between 2011-2017.
- Comparison of risk factors between patients with (n=73) and without (n=6513) early abdominal complications.
- Identification and weighting of significant risk factors to create a predictive score.
Main Results:
- Multifocal atherosclerosis, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, intra-aortic balloon pump, atrial fibrillation, perioperative myocardial infarction, and resternotomy were identified as leading risk factors.
- The developed risk score demonstrated a high classification accuracy of 98.9%.
- Patients with a total score of 7 or more indicated the highest risk for early abdominal complications.
Conclusions:
- The established risk score effectively predicts the likelihood of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.
- This tool enables the stratification of patients into distinct risk groups, facilitating tailored clinical management.
Background:
Although early abdominal complications after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) are rare, the associated mortality remains high.
Aim:
To develop a risk score for the prediction of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.
Methods:
This retrospective study was performed in the Federal State Budgetary Establishment "Federal Center of Cardiovascular Surgery" of the Ministry of Health of Russia (the city of Chelyabinsk) and included data of 6586 patients who underwent CABG with CPB during 2011-2017. The risk factors taken for evaluation were compared between patients with early abdominal complications (n = 73) and without them (n = 6513). We identified the most important risk factors and their influence on the development of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB.
Results:
Gender and the presence of postinfarction cardiosclerosis, chronic kidney disease, or diabetes in the anamnesis did not affect the occurrence of abdominal complications. The leading risk factors of the early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB were multifocal atherosclerosis, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, intra-aortic balloon pump, atrial fibrillation, perioperative myocardial infarction, and the need for resternotomy in the postoperative period. The average value of the predicted probability was 0.087 ± 0.015 in patients with early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and 0.0094 ± 0.0003 in patients without these complications. The percentage of correct classification turned out to be 98.9%. After calculating a score for each of the leading risk factors, we counted a total score for each particular patient. The highest risk was noted in patients with a total score of 7 or more.
Conclusion:
The developed score predicts the risk of early abdominal complications after CABG with CPB and makes it possible to stratify patients by risk groups.
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