Predictive factors for long-term survival in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib

Sorafenib, used for advanced-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), has an overall survival (OS) of 10 months. However, some patients have better response and long-term survival (LTS). Aims to assess predictive factors for LTS.

Retrospectively reviewed 77 advanced HCC patients, starting sorafenib treatment between 2007 and 2016, with LTS (OS ≥24 months) as primary endpoint. Univariate and multivariable analysis of clinical variables were performed in order to identify predictive factors for LTS.

Patients: seventy (90.9%) males; median age: 65 years (39-82). All had cirrhosis mostly HCV infection (n = 32, 41.6%). Majority were Child-Pugh class A (n = 50, 64.9%); median MELD-Na: 11 (6-30). Multinodular HCC: 74% (n = 57); portal vein invasion (PVI): 50.6% (n = 39); extrahepatic spread: 18.2% (n = 14). Median time between HCC diagnosis and sorafenib start: 3.3 months (0-37.6). Median OS: 13 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.2-17.8]. Twenty-five (32.5%) patients were considered LTS, with amedian OS: 52.3 months (95% CI 17.1-87.4). Multivariable analysis identified Child-Pugh class A [odds ratio (OR) 11.1, 95% CI 1.78-69.54] and absence of PVI (OR 7.88, 95% CI 1.56-39.8) as independent predictors of LTS. Sub-analysis of Child-Pugh class A: absence of PVI (OR 7.13, 95% CI 1.69-30.2) and alpha-fetoprotein <400 ng/ml (OR 5.82, 95% CI 1.18-28.75) independently related to LTS.

Despite global short median OS, sorafenib treatment is associated with longer than 2-year survival in a sub-group, more likely in compensated liver disease and absence of PVI.