Environmental behavior and potential driving force of bisphenol A in the Elbe River: A long-term trend study

As an endocrine disruptor, a deep understanding of the environmental behavior and potential driving force of bisphenol A (BPA) is helpful for developing a mitigation strategy and reducing the exposure risk to the public. Based on long-term monitoring data from 2004 to 2016, this study systematically evaluated the long-term trend, periodic characteristics, and potential risks of BPA in the Elbe River in the state of Saxony, Germany. Multiple advanced statistical approaches were employed for data mining. Pettitt's test was used to determine the main change points of BPA that occurred from 2008 to 2011. The Mann-Kendall test showed a decreasing trend in BPA concentrations (slope: -0.087 to -0.112, P < 0.05) over the past 13 years, particularly in the wet seasons (slope: -0.730 to -0.038, P < 0.05). Wavelet analysis revealed similar periodicities of BPA among stations (which experienced 4-5 oscillations in the first major period). The ARIMA model forecasted the mean BPA concentration as ranging from 9 to 41 ng L^-1 in the subsequent 3 months, which was similar to that in the last 3 months (20-42 ng L^-1). Besides, the highest hazard quotients (>0.3) were documented for Chironomus riparius, Oryzias latipes, Potamopyrgus antipodarum, and Hydra vulgar, which indicates that BPA may threaten their growth and development. The hazard index values for non-cancer risk of BPA no greater than 6.47 × 10^-9 (HQ far below 1), which suggests that BPA did not pose a significant threat to human health. Because BPA pollution is closely related to industrial activities, a long-term decline in BPA concentrations could be attributed to the reduced number of factories, limited discharge, and improved decontamination efficiency. However, the minimal change in the BPA concentration in the near future could reflect periodic fluctuations.