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Poverty modeling in the Islamic Republic of Iran using an ANFIS optimized network with the differential evolution
Fateme Nazari Robati1, Hossein Akbarifard1, Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalaee1
1Department of Economics, Faculty of Management and Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
Methodsx
|November 18, 2020
Summary
This study models multidimensional poverty in Iran using an optimized ANFIS system. The differential evolution algorithm significantly improved model accuracy and reduced errors for better poverty analysis.
Area of Science:
- Socioeconomics
- Computational Intelligence
- Development Economics
Background:
- Traditional income-based poverty measures are insufficient, failing to capture poverty's multifaceted nature.
- Understanding poverty dimensions is crucial for developing economies, particularly Iran.
- A comprehensive analysis requires accurate modeling of poverty trends and welfare indicators.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model multidimensional poverty in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1996-2017.
- To present internal and external dimensions of poverty within the specified period.
- To utilize advanced computational methods for accurate poverty assessment.
Main Methods:
- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) optimized with a differential evolution (DE) algorithm.
- Training the ANFIS system using the DE algorithm for improved performance over standard FIS.
- Utilizing time series data from reputable sources like the World Development Index and World Bank.
Main Results:
- The DE-optimized ANFIS model demonstrated significant improvements in the poverty modeling process.
- Key error criteria, including Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), were substantially reduced.
- Enhanced accuracy in modeling the Iran Multidimensional Poverty Index was achieved.
Conclusions:
- Optimizing ANFIS with evolutionary algorithms like DE enhances model accuracy and reduces errors.
- The developed model provides a robust tool for monitoring poverty, income distribution, and welfare trends in Iran.
- This approach offers a more comprehensive understanding of poverty beyond traditional income metrics.
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