[Cardiovascular disease risk in diabetes patients aged 40 years old and above in China]

Objective: To evaluate the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), ischemic and hemorrhagic cardiovascular events among Chinese diabetic patients aged 40 years and above with different CVD risk levels. Methods: This study enrolled participants aged 40 years and above in 15 provinces from a prospective cohort study, the China-PAR project (Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China). Participants were categorized into two groups according to the presence or absence of diabetes at baseline. Individuals were further classified into low (0-4.9%), moderate (5%-9.9%) and high risk groups (≥10%), based on predicted ten-year CVD risk using the China-PAR equations. Two followed-up surveys were conducted between 2007 and 2015 to identify CVD events, which were defined as nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, or death due to coronary heart disease, or stroke. Ischemic cardiovascular events included nonfatal acute myocardial infarction, or death due to coronary heart disease, or ischemic stroke. Hemorrhagic cardiovascular events included subarachnoid hemorrhage and intracerebral hemorrhage. The incidences of CVD, ischemic and hemorrhagic cardiovascular events were compared in diabetes and non-diabetes population with different CVD risk levels. Results: This study included 89 209 participants aged 40 years and above, the average follow-up period was 8.5 years. The age was (54.8±9.4) years, and 36 794 (41.2%) were men, and 5 730 (6.4%) were diabetic patients. In diabetes patients aged 40 years and above, 53.7% (3 075/5 730) were at high risk of CVD. Age-and sex-adjusted incidence of CVD, ischemic and hemorrhagic cardiovascular events (1 066.93/100 000 person-years, 824.23/100 000 person-years, and 211.56/100 000 person-years) were significantly lower in diabetes patients than those in non-diabetes population with high CVD risk (1 773.73/100 000 person-years, 1 228.18/100 000 person-years, and 446.49/100 000 person-years) (all P<0.001). Among high CVD risk populations, incidence of ischemic events was significantly higher in diabetic patients than in non-diabetes population (1 638.47/100 000 person-years vs. 1 228.18/100 000 person-years, P<0.001), but incidence of hemorrhagic events tended to be lower in diabetic patients than in non-diabetes population (415.70/100 000 person-years vs. 446.49/100 000 person-years, P=0.635). Incidence of ischemic and hemorrhagic events were similar between diabetes patients and non-diabetes population at low or moderate CVD risk groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions: More than half of diabetes patients aged 40 years and above in China have high CVD risk. The incidence of CVD, ischemic and hemorrhagic cardiovascular events are different in diabetic patients with different CVD risk levels.