The need to return to the basics of predictive modelling for disease outbreak response: lessons from COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 has been unprecedented in speed and effect. Efforts to predict the disease transmission have mostly been done using flagship models developed by the global north. These models have not accurately depicted the true rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Africa. The models have ignored Africa's unique socio-ecological makeup (demographic, social, environmental and biological) that has aided a slower and less severe spread of the virus. This paper opines on how the science of infectious disease modelling needs to evolve to accommodate contextual factors. Country-owned and tailored modelling needs to be urgently supported.