Future climates: Markov blankets and active inference in the biosphere.

Area of Science:

• Theoretical Biology
• Climate Science
• Systems Ecology

Background:

• The Gaia hypothesis proposes that Earth's biosphere regulates global climate.
• Previous work lacked a rigorous theoretical framework to explain climate regulation.
• Non-equilibrium thermodynamics describes complex systems like Earth's climate.

Purpose of the Study:

• To formalize the Gaia hypothesis using theoretical biology and free-energy minimization.
• To model Earth's climate system as a Markov blanket.
• To explain climate stability through active inference principles.

Main Methods:

• Applied variational free-energy minimization principles from theoretical biology.
• Modeled the Earth system as a Markov blanket with internal (biosphere metabolism) and external (solar radiation) states.
• Analyzed climate dynamics through changes in greenhouse effects, albedo, and ocean temperatures.

Main Results:

• Earth's climate dynamics can be understood as a Markov blanket.
• Biospheric metabolic rates actively infer solar radiation changes.
• Free-energy minimization explains climate stability and non-equilibrium steady states.

Conclusions:

• The Gaia hypothesis is formalized by viewing the Earth system as a Markov blanket.
• Climate stability arises from the biosphere's active inference on solar radiation.
• This framework supports the concept of planetary autopoiesis.