Multiple spawning run contingents and population consequences in migratory striped bass Morone saxatilis

Multiple spawning run contingents within the same population can experience varying demographic fates that stabilize populations through the portfolio effect. Multiple spawning run contingents (aka run timing groups) are reported here for the first time for striped bass, an economically important coastal species, which is well known for plastic estuarine and shelf migration behaviors. Adult Hudson River Estuary striped bass (n = 66) were tagged and tracked with acoustic transmitters from two known spawning reaches separated by 90 km. Biotelemetry recaptures for two years demonstrated that each river reach was associated with separate contingents. Time series of individual spawning phenologies were examined via nonparametric dynamic time warping and revealed two dominant time series centroids, each associated with a separate spawning reach. The lower spawning reach contingent occurred earlier than the higher reach contingent in 2017 but not in 2018. The majority (89%) of returning adults in 2018 showed the same contingent behaviors exhibited in 2017. Spawning contingents may have been cued differently by temperatures, where warming lagged 1-week at the higher reach in comparison to the lower reach. The two contingents exhibited similar Atlantic shelf migration patterns with strong summer fidelity to Massachusetts Bay and winter migrations to the southern US Mid-Atlantic Bight. Still, in 2017, differing times of departure into nearby shelf waters likely caused the early lower reach contingent to experience substantially higher mortality than the later upper reach contingent. Anecdotal evidence suggests that higher fishing effort is exerted on the early-departing individuals as they first enter shelf fisheries. Thus, as in salmon, multiple spawning units can lead to differential demographic outcomes, potentially stabilizing overall population dynamics.