Impact of COVID-19 predicts perceived risk more strongly than known demographic risk factors

To identify the factors associated with perceived COVID-19 risk among people living in the US.

A cross-sectional representative sample of 485 US residents was collected in mid-April 2020. Participants were asked about (a) perceptions of COVID-19 risk, (b) demographic factors known to be associated with increased COVID-19 risk, and (c) the impact of COVID-19 on different life domains. We used a three-step hierarchical linear regression model to assess the differential contribution of the factors listed above on perceived COVID-19 risk.

The final model accounted for 16% of variability in perceived risk, F(18,458) = 4.8, p < .001. Participants who were White reported twice as much perceived risk as participants of color (B = -2.1, 95% CI[-3.4,-0.8]. Higher perceived risk was observed among those who reported a negative impact of the pandemic on their sleep (B = 1.5, 95% CI[0.8,2.1]) or work (B = 0.7, 95%CI[0.1,1.3]). The number of cases per capita in their state of residence, age, or proximity to someone with a COVID-19 diagnosis were not found to meaningfully predict perceived risk.

Perceived risk was not found to be associated with known demographic risk factors, except that the effect of race/ethnicity was in the opposite direction of existing evidence. Perception of COVID-19 risk was associated with the perceived personal impact of the pandemic.