Strategies for the efficient use of diagnostic resource under constraints: a model-based study on overflow of patients and insufficient diagnostic kits

This article addresses an optimisation problem of distributing rapid diagnostic kits among patients when the demands far surpass the supplies. This problem has not been given much attention in the field, and therefore, this article aims to provide a preliminary result in this problem domain. First, we describe the problem and define the goal of the optimisation by introducing an evaluation metric that measures the efficiency of the distribution strategies. Then, we propose two simple strategies, and a strategy that incorporates a prediction of patients' visits utilising a standard epidemic model. The strategies were evaluated using the metric, with past statistics in Kitami City, Hokkaido, Japan, and the prediction-based strategy outperformed the other distribution strategies. We discuss the properties of the strategies and the limitations of the proposed approach. Although the problem must be generalised before the actual deployment of the suggested strategy, the preliminary result is promising in its ability to address the shortage of diagnostic capacity currently observed worldwide because of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic.