When will individuals meet their personalized probabilities? A philosophical note on risk prediction

Area of Science:

• Medical Science
• Predictive Analytics
• Philosophy of Medicine

Background:

• Risk prediction is a core objective in modern medicine.
• Achieving perfect individual disease prediction remains a significant challenge across most medical conditions.
• The existence of inherent individual risks is a key assumption for personalized prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To challenge the feasibility of ultimate personalized prediction in medicine.
• To provide a multi-faceted argument against the possibility of perfect individual risk prediction.
• To explore the limitations of current medical prediction models.

Main Methods:

• The study employs pragmatic, epistemic, conceptual, and ontological arguments.
• It critically examines the foundational assumptions underlying individual risk assessment.
• A philosophical and theoretical analysis is conducted on the nature of prediction in medicine.

Main Results:

• The paper argues that perfect individual-level prediction is fundamentally unattainable.
• It demonstrates that the assumption of existing, knowable individual risks is flawed.
• The limitations extend across various medical conditions, not just specific diseases.

Conclusions:

• Ultimate personalized prediction in medicine faces insurmountable barriers.
• The pursuit of perfect prediction should be re-evaluated in favor of more realistic approaches.
• Understanding the inherent limitations is crucial for advancing medical risk assessment.