A Risk Prediction Model for Evaluating the Disease Progression of COVID-19 Pneumonia

Background and Objective: The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has expanded from China throughout the world. This study aims to estimate the risk of disease progression of patients who have been confirmed with COVID-19. Methods: Meta-analysis was performed in existing literatures to identify risk factors associated with COVID-19 pneumonia progression. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were admitted to hospitals in Wuhan or Hangzhou were retrospectively enrolled. The risk prediction model and nomogram were developed from Wuhan cohort through logistic regression algorithm, and then validated in Hangzhou and Yinchuan cohorts. Results: A total of 270 patients admitted to hospital between Dec 30, 2019, and Mar 30, 2020, were retrospectively enrolled (Table 1). The development cohort (Wuhan cohort) included 87 (43%) men and 115 (57%) women, and the median age was 53 years old. Hangzhou validation cohort included 20 (48%) men and 22 (52%) women, and the median age was 59 years old. Yinchuan validation cohort included 12 (46%) men and 14 (54%) women, and the median age was 44 years old. The meta-analysis along with univariate logistic analysis in development cohort have shown that age, fever, diabetes, hypertension, CREA, BUN, CK, LDH, and neutrophil count were significantly associated with disease progression of COVID-19 pneumonia. The model and nomogram derived from development cohort show good performance in both development and validation cohorts. Conclusion: The severe COVID-19 pneumonia is associated with various types of risk factors including age, fever, comorbidities, and some laboratory examination indexes. The model integrated with these factors can help to evaluate the disease progression of COVID-19 pneumonia.