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COVID-19 Misinformation Spread in Eight Countries: Exponential Growth Modeling Study.
Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie1, Nina Cesare2, Martin Müller3
1Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States.
Journal of Medical Internet Research
|December 2, 2020
Summary
COVID-19 misinformation, particularly concerning 5G, spread rapidly across countries, mirroring infectious disease epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial for developing effective public health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Information Science
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by widespread misinformation regarding transmission, prevention, and treatment.
- Data on the exposure and impact of this health misinformation remains limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze and compare the onset, peak, and doubling time of COVID-19 misinformation topics across eight countries.
- To apply epidemiological models, specifically exponential growth models, to study the spread of online health misinformation.
Main Methods:
- COVID-19 misinformation topics were identified from the World Health Organization Mythbusters.
- Google Trends data was utilized to assess public search interest in misinformation topics across eight English-speaking countries.
- Exponential growth models were employed to analyze the trends and spread patterns of misinformation.
Main Results:
- Searches for "coronavirus AND 5G" exhibited distinct patterns, peaking concurrently in six countries and demonstrating the shortest doubling time (4-5 days in Nigeria and South Africa).
- Misinformation topics like "coronavirus AND ginger" and "coronavirus AND sun" showed varied start and peak times across countries, with some not consistently following exponential growth.
- The 5G-related misinformation showed more consistent spread patterns across countries compared to other topics, potentially due to public unfamiliarity with the technology.
Conclusions:
- The spread dynamics of "coronavirus AND 5G" misinformation differed from other topics and were consistent across assessed countries, possibly linked to public understanding of 5G.
- Analyzing misinformation spread patterns, including cross-contextual similarities and differences, can inform interventions to mitigate its impact, akin to strategies for infectious disease epidemics.
- The rapid spread of misinformation that undermines public health guidance may predict future increases in disease incidence.
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