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Regional Seismic Information Entropy to Detect Earthquake Activation Precursors
1Department of Systems Innovation, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 3, 2020
Summary
A new method uses the Regional Entropy of Seismic Information (RESI) to predict earthquake activity. An increase and saturation in RESI can signal future earthquakes in a region up to two years in advance.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Earthquake Science
Background:
- Earthquake prediction remains a significant challenge in seismology.
- Understanding seismic precursors is crucial for mitigating earthquake hazards.
- Existing methods for detecting earthquake precursors have limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel method for detecting earthquake precursors using time series data.
- To propose and validate the Regional Entropy of Seismic Information (RESI) as a predictive index.
- To assess the reliability of RESI in forecasting seismic activity.
Main Methods:
- Development of the Regional Entropy of Seismic Information (RESI) index.
- Analysis of earthquake time series data from target regions.
- Validation of the RESI hypothesis using historical earthquake catalogs.
- Comparison of RESI's predictive performance against baseline methods.
Main Results:
- A significant correlation was found between RESI saturation and subsequent earthquake activation.
- The RESI method demonstrated predictive capabilities for Japanese earthquake activity.
- Predictions were achieved one to two years ahead of actual seismic events.
- RESI outperformed compared baseline methods in reliability.
Conclusions:
- The RESI index shows promise as a reliable earthquake precursor.
- This method offers a potential advancement in seismic hazard assessment.
- Further research into RESI could enhance earthquake early warning systems.
