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Evolution of Human Respiratory Virus Epidemics.
Nash D Rochman1, Yuri I Wolf1, Eugene V Koonin1
1National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD 20894.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|December 3, 2020
Summary
Pathogen evolution is kinetically constrained, meaning reduced virulence isn't guaranteed. Interventions like isolating infected individuals can lower fatalities and guide viruses toward less severe forms, impacting future epidemics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Evolutionary Medicine
Background:
- Pathogen virulence evolution often assumes a trade-off between mortality and infectivity, which is difficult to validate for human pathogens.
- Forecasting the future case fatality rate (CFR) of novel pathogens like SARS-CoV-2 is a critical public health goal.
- Existing mathematical models for virulence evolution have limitations in recapitulating complex outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Virulence evolution in human respiratory epidemics is often kinetically constrained; reduced virulence should not be assumed.
- Continued public health interventions are necessary to mitigate the disease burden of SARS-CoV-2.
- Herd immunity may be unachievable, but isolating symptomatic individuals can reduce short-term fatalities and promote less virulent evolutionary trajectories.
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