Forecasting future HIV infection cases: evidence from Indonesia

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Indonesia faces a significant challenge with HIV infection incidence and prevalence, including diverse HIV-1 subtypes like CRF01_AE and B.
• Despite government initiatives and national health insurance covering Antiretroviral therapy (ART), challenges persist in HIV management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast the number of HIV-positive patients in Indonesia from 2019 to 2030.
• To provide data for policy and decision-making to address the growing HIV epidemic.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARMA) model, specifically ARMA (1,1), for forecasting.
• Data forecasting initiated in March 2019, employing dynamic forecasting techniques.

Main Results:

• The study forecasts an increase in HIV-positive patients from 22,679 in 2019 to 36,255 by 2030, a rise of almost 37% over 12 years.
• Identified treatment non-adherence and cessation of Antiretroviral drug consumption as key drivers of the increasing trend.

Conclusions:

• Indonesia is projected to experience a growing trend in new HIV cases until 2030.
• The findings underscore the importance of continued investigation into HIV patient numbers for effective public health strategies and policy development.