Hydrogen Storage for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Expert Elicitation and a Levelized Cost of Driving Model

Area of Science:

• Energy Storage
• Automotive Engineering
• Materials Science

Background:

• Current hydrogen storage systems in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) exceed targets for weight, size, and cost set by the U.S. DRIVE Partnership.
• Advancing FCEVs requires cost-effective and compact hydrogen storage solutions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess expert opinions on future hydrogen storage system costs and capacities.
• To inform research and development (R&D) priorities for hydrogen storage technology.

Main Methods:

• Elicited assessments from 31 experts on projected hydrogen storage system performance.
• Incorporated expert cost data into a levelized cost of driving model for FCEVs.

Main Results:

• Experts anticipate hydrogen storage systems will approach U.S. DRIVE capacity targets by 2035 and 2050 but fall short of cost goals.
• Projected median costs are $13.5/kWhH (2035) and $10.53/kWhH (2050), with capacities of 5.2 wt% and 0.93 kWhH/L (2035), and 5.6 wt% and 1.33 kWhH/L (2050).
• FCEV driving costs are projected to decrease, potentially competing with conventional vehicles by 2035.

Conclusions:

• Materials development should receive the majority of government R&D funding for hydrogen storage.
• Optimized hydrogen storage systems and favorable market conditions could enable FCEV competitiveness.