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The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results
Timothy M Dall1, Ryan L Reynolds, Ritashree Chakrabarti
1From the IHS Markit, Washington, DC (TMD, RLR, RC); Center for Health Workforce Studies, School of Public Health, University at Albany SUNY, Rensselaer, New York (GJF, ML, SW); Moss Rehabilitation Research Institute, Elkins Park, Pennsylvania (JW); Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Sidney Kimmel Medical College at Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (NSA); VA North Texas Health Care System, University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, Texas (TMA); Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California (MF); Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, Texas (NBJ); Departments of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation and Anesthesiology & Perioperative Care and Neurological Surgery, University of California, Irvine, California (DPK); Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (DCM); VA Puget Sound Health Care System Center for Limb Loss and Mobility (CLiMB), Seattle, Washington (DCM); Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts (CS); Harvard Medical School Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Boston, Massachusetts (CS); and Georgetown University School of Medicine, Washington, DC (EW).
Objective:
The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States.
Design:
A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources.
Results:
Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030.
Conclusion:
Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall.
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