Autoregressive model for genetic evaluation of longitudinal reproductive traits in Brazilian Holstein cattle

Reproductive efficiency is major determinant of the dairy herd profitability. Thus, reproductive traits have been widely used as selection objectives in the current dairy cattle breeding programs. We aimed to evaluate strategies to model days open (DO), calving interval (CI) and daughter pregnancy rate (DPR) in Brazilian Holstein cattle. These reproductive traits were analysed by the autoregressive (AR) model and compared with classical repeatability (REP) model using 127,280, 173,092 and 127,280 phenotypic records, respectively. The first three calving orders of cows from 1,469 Holstein herds were used here. The AR model reported lower values for Akaike Information Criteria and Mean Square Errors, as well as larger model probabilities, for all evaluated traits. Similarly, larger additive genetic and lower residual variances were estimated from AR model. Heritability and repeatability estimates were similar for both models. Heritabilities for DO, CI and DPR were 0.04, 0.07 and 0.04; and 0.05, 0.06 and 0.04 for AR and REP models, respectively. Individual EBV reliabilities estimated from AR for DO, CI and DPR were, in average, 0.29, 0.30 and 0.29 units higher than those obtained from REP model. Rank correlation between EBVs obtained from AR and REP models considering the top 10 bulls ranged from 0.72 to 0.76; and increased from 0.98 to 0.99 for the top 100 bulls. The percentage of coincidence between selected bulls from both methods increased over the number of bulls included in the top groups. Overall, the results of model-fitting criteria, genetic parameters estimates and EBV predictions were favourable to the AR model, indicating that it may be applied for genetic evaluation of longitudinal reproductive traits in Brazilian Holstein cattle.