Development and Validation of a Method to Estimate COPD Severity in Multiple Datasets: A Retrospective Study

Outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) such as symptoms, hospitalisations and mortality rise with increasing disease severity. However, the heterogeneity of electronic medical records presents a significant challenge in measuring severity across geographies. We aimed to develop and validate a method to approximate COPD severity using the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2011 classification scheme, which categorises patients based on forced expiratory volume in 1 s, hospitalisations and the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea scale or COPD Assessment Test.

This analysis was part of a comprehensive retrospective study, including patients sourced from the IQVIA Medical Research Data [IMRD; incorporating data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a Cegedim database] and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) in the UK, the Disease Analyzer in Germany and the Longitudinal Patient Data in Italy, France and Australia. Patients in the CPRD with the complete set of information required to calculate GOLD 2011 groups were used to develop the method. Ordinal logistic models at COPD diagnosis and at index (first episode of triple therapy) were then used to validate the method to estimate COPD severity, and this was applied to the full study population to estimate GOLD 2011 categories.

Overall, 4579 and 12,539 patients were included in the model at COPD diagnosis and at index, respectively. Models correctly classified 74.4% and 75.9% of patients into severe and non-severe categories at COPD diagnosis and at index, respectively. Age, gender, time between diagnosis and start of triple therapy, healthcare resource use, comorbid conditions and prescriptions were included as covariates.

This study developed and validated a method to approximate disease severity based on GOLD 2011 categories that can potentially be used in patients without all the key parameters needed for this calculation.