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Probabilistic Strategic Conflict-Management for 4D Trajectories in Free-Route Airspace
Javier Alberto Pérez-Castán1, Álvaro Rodríguez-Sanz1, Luis Pérez Sanz1
1Higher Technical School of Aeronautical and Space Engineering (ETSIAE), Polytechnic University of Madrid, Plaza Cardenal Cisneros, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 8, 2020
Summary
Future air traffic management requires new strategies like four-dimensional trajectories (4DT). This study proposes a method using temporary-blocking windows for strategic conflict management, showing feasibility despite uncertainties.
Area of Science:
- Aerospace Engineering
- Operations Research
- Transportation Science
Background:
- Air traffic growth necessitates advanced Air Traffic Management (ATM) systems.
- Current ATM faces limitations, driving the need for new operational concepts.
- Four-dimensional trajectories (4DT) are a proposed future concept for managing air traffic.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and evaluate a strategic conflict management method for 4DT in free-route airspace.
- To quantify conflict probabilities and define temporary-blocking windows for aircraft departures.
- To analyze the impact of uncertainties on conflict management.
Main Methods:
- Proposed a strategic conflict management method based on temporary restrictions and time windows.
- Calculated conflict probability for aircraft pairs intersecting in airspace.
- Developed temporary-blocking windows to identify departure time constraints.
- Applied methodology to a case study and performed sensitivity analysis on wind and speed control.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated the feasibility of strategic de-confliction using 4DT and temporary-blocking windows.
- Quantified the impact of uncertainties, including wind conditions and speed control, on conflict probability.
- Showed that these uncertainties affect the size and duration of temporary-blocking windows.
Conclusions:
- Strategic conflict management for 4DT is feasible using temporary-blocking windows.
- Uncertainty variables significantly influence conflict probability and blocking window durations.
- Further research is needed to refine 4DT de-confliction strategies considering real-world uncertainties.
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